Just across the bay from San Francisco is the jewel city of Belvedere.  The town offers views that rival the most glamorous cities in the world.  This location has held its value throughout the recent economic downturn.

Courtesy of Bilkoy

The median price of a Belvedere home is $2.8 million, down a modest 2% from the peak in 2007.  Looking at the average price of Belvedere homes, however, can be misleading.  Average home prices in Belvedere have risen 47% from 2005 but this is due in part to some of the staggering prices paid for a few of Marin’s most expensive homes. 

In 2007 there was a home sale for $15.5 million, capped by a $19 million dollar sale in 2008.  This year, the highest sales price according to local MLS statistics was a mere $5.2 million.

With such a variation in average price and relative consistency in the median price it can be difficult to know how much the actual property values have changed.  Both the Median and Average Sale Price statistics measure where the bulk of the market activity is, not the change in value on a specific type of home.

The average price change from 2005 indicates an increase in value of 47, and a modest 4 drop from peak in 2007.  My analysis shows that a typical Belvedere home has enjoyed a real net gain of 16% from 2005 and a drop from the 2007 peak of only 3.  Using the same valuation algorithm to compare, the typical Marin home has seen a loss of 25 from the peak and 17% from 2005.