Economic upheaval. Leery buyers. Hesitant sellers. Confusion abounds.

So here’s the obvious: We’re just as concerned about the state of the local real estate market as you. And no matter what the pundits say, none of us know if things are really as bad as the reports will have us believe. I will say that after I read the WSJ or The Economist I am sometimes more confused than before!

So that just leaves us with the present, and choosing to believe in a future, good or bad. At McGuire, we’ve decided to take a hard, realistic, and often scary look at the present. But as for the future? We have dared to be cautiously optimistic.

This is because of what history has taught us. We know the San Francisco Bay Area real estate market moves up and down in what are typically 5-year cycles. We know the market has core strengths, like limited size, relatively low unemployment, and a destination for global thought leaders. We personally know owners who purchased less than 10 years ago and, even in today’s market, are still looking at over 100% appreciation.

Will these history lessons repeat? We sure hope so. When? It’s anybody’s guess. But here’s my litmus test: if you only had $100,000 to invest, where would you put your money? Stocks? Under your mattress? Other commodities like gold? Or real estate? Heck, even my blue chip stocks are way down, and to compound my problem, I don’t understand them nor do I have any control of their future. There’s not a thing I can do to change their performance.

So “stocks” are out for me. my answer is real estate. I understand it, I can see it, kick it, alter its “bricks & mortar,” etc. Its ultimate performance can be affected by me. I am more in control of its destiny.

In the meantime, we hope you gather your own information and form your own “guesstimate” that makes you comfortable. Because really, that’s all any of us have.